Weather forecasting needs improvement

[pyesetz]

I have yet to find a source of weather predictions for my area that is accurate enough to be of any use.

(Northeast lawn of my house)


(Northwest lawn of my house)

Yesterday and the day before I received 11 emails from Environment Canada entitled "WINTER STORM WARNING for Waterloo—Wellington".  These two citites are 300 km apart; apparently the forecast is aimed at all 30,000 km² of Western Ontario.

The official statements:

Date/Time	Storm location	Snowfall		Warns
		Wed	Thu
21-Nov 12:01	Missouri	5-10	5-10	Ice pellets
21-Nov 17:35	Illinois	10	10	Ice pellets, Low visibility
21-Nov 22:46	Illinois	10	10	Ice pellets, Low visibility, in a line from Toronto to Goderich
22-Nov 00:25	Ohio	10	10	Ice pellets, Low visibility, in a line from Toronto to Goderich
22-Nov 05:01	Ohio	--	5-10	Freezing rain in progress from Cobourg to Kingston
22-Nov 05:40	Ohio	--	5-10	Ice pellets, freezing rain in progress in Kitchener
22-Nov 07:34	Pennsylvania	--	5-10	Freezing rain in progress in Kitchener
22-Nov 09:13	Lake Erie	--	2-5	"The worst is over", snowsqualls from London to Barrie
22-Nov 10:39	New York	--	2-5	"Ended", snowsqualls from London to Barrie
22-Nov 13:53	New York	--	2-5	"Ended", lake-effect flurries
22-Nov 16:59	New York	--	--	It's over

What actually happened:

• Rain turned to ice pellets around 2 AM.
• ½ cm or less of freezing rain fell during the wee hours (note: not predicted until already in progress)
• About 5 cm of snow during wee hours of Wednesday night, approximately 0 on Thursday.  Not even enough to cover the grass!
• No snowsqualls or lake-effect flurries.  No white-out blizzards.

The overall effect here is of a weather service that is so afraid of missing a Big Event that they predict 15 of the last 10 recessions.  I don't know what they're talking about re "traditional snowsquall belt from London to Barrie"; the never-wrong Wikipedia says lake-effect snow only rarely gets even as far as Kitchener.

And the stupidest thing?  Starting Wednesday night it was abundantly clear from radar that the storm was passing well to the south of the line from Waterloo—Wellington!  Don't these meteorologists actually *look* at their equipment, or are they required by law to recycle successful forecasts of the past?