Jan. 10th, 2011

pyesetz: (felix)

(I realize that y'all are still waiting to hear my thoughts about String Theory, but you'll just have to keep waiting.  The stock market is my Shiny New Toy of the Day so that's what I wanna talk about!)

I used the Schwab stock-screen to select
  • Schwab Equity Rating = A or B (this eliminates stocks with poor financial controls, and also "weird" stocks that don't have ratings).
  • MACD = recent cross above signal line (this is a "buy" signal).
  • Price = "Far above" 50-day moving average (this indicates stocks that have been rising a lot).
Of the 5,000 stocks in the Schwab universe, these filters eliminate all but 9 of them:
SymbolNameIndustry
ATMLAtmel CorpSemiconductors
RDENElizabeth ArdenCosmetics
KLICKulicke & SoffaSemiconductors
LOJNLoJack CorpElectronics
MCBCMacatawa BankBanking
OUTDOutdoor ChannelCable TV
SHKSkilled Healthcare GroupHealthcare
CLUBTown Sports Intl HoldingsLeisure
PAYVeriFone SystemsData processing
I immediately discarded MCBC and SHK because the US govt is not adequately regulating either of those industries, so reliable investor info cannot be obtained.  What does Best Charts have to say about the other seven?
IndicatorsYearly gainTrades last mo
Symbol#/16ITAMACDHoldITAMACDITAMACD
ATML15HoldBuy154%105%145%02
RDEN16BuyBuy69%23%-8%42
KLIC16BuyBuy44%3%-3%22
LOJN14HoldBuy64%-2%-28%33
OUTD14HoldBuy35%47%48%02
CLUB14BuyBuy66%119%88%44
PAY16HoldBuy136%73%64%22

The "Yearly gain" columns show how much I would have made if I just held the stock for a year, or traded whenever ITA told me to, or whenever MACD told me to.  Green means the momentum-trading program would have yielded *more* money than just holding the stock for a year; orange means at least 66% as much (but with less worry); red for not even that much.  I'm not sure what the negative numbers truly mean.  Perhaps some stocks have poor momentum and so trying to time them produces nothing but losses.

The "Trades last mo" columns indicate how many trades these indicators would have had me do in the last 30 days.  A whole bunch of trades one after another just isn't very realistic.

So, based on these results, I have purchased ATML (whose products I used to use at Company ℱ) and OUTD (whose channel I never watch).  Based on recent history, I expect to hold OUTD for two weeks, ATML for 2-4 weeks (until MACD says sell).

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