Unconfident win

So, I won again.  The gain was +1.151%, which rounds up to 1.2%.

There were four days of shorting (10%, 10%, 10%, and 20%), and the last one had a largeish drop so I didn’t place a BUY-to-exit order for Sep 06.  But I wasn’t too impressed with the bearishness that day, so I did place an exit order for Sep 07, which filled.  Now I’m not so sure that was a good idea.  Maybe, when we have one of these downward-rush events, I should wait for an ‘up’ day and then exit the following day?  Needs more research.  Another research topic: if we go immediately back up again tomorrow, should I restart the short-selling at the 20% level (like a continuation) or go back to 10% (as a fresh trade-set)?

On Aug 29 I wrote: “the red line came very close on Aug 25, … so I think I’ll skip the contrarian trade on the next downswing.”  Meanwhile, the red line has since fallen away and I’m expecting another bounce at the dashed orange line, so why not trade long here?  Dunno what to do.  The algorithm doesn’t have enough code for dealing with edge cases!

✶ ✡ ✡ ✡ ✶

Soon it will be Jewish New Year 5784!  In the beginning, there was the fire and the light, as God set off the Big Bang.  And it was evening and it was morning, 379,000 years, until the universe cooled enough so there could be some dark spots.  And that’s how God (blessed be He) gave us the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation!  So dip your apples in the honey and salt your challah — then we’ll go do some Jew science!