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Another +0.6% win in my imaginary hobby game!
Last time I said
that this swing would last for “several weeks” and the market would drop by
“oh let’s say 4%”. Well, the swing is now over after one week and the
market is up over 4%. Remember, folks, you’re
watching
Of course, the big news last night was the US debt ceiling, a nearly-fake political battle where it seems the Republicans always win and the Democrats can never manage to explain the actual rules of the game. So now the stock market is getting a “relief rally” after the resolution of the cliff-hanger in our debt ceiling soap opera. This rally probably won’t last long, maybe three days. But my algorithm does not require me to predict how long it will last.
Worst thing for the bears would be if the market stays up for a couple of days, then kisses the dashed orange line from the topside, then heads upwards into the stratosphere. Ow! We could be looking at a June blow-off top to begin our summer. (The orange line is the gap from when Silicon Valley Bank had its liquidity crisis. We stayed below that line for nearly three months. If we quickly go back down then I expect we’ll stay below it until fall.)
What trade orders for Monday? The green line got pierced today, so the market is rising rapidly and I should not bet against it with a SELL-SHORT order. On the other paw, the market is so high right now that if it gets down to the lower blue line as soon as Monday or Tuesday that would be a crash-signal, so I shouldn’t bet against that with a BUY order. So, no orders for Monday!
Why yes, there were several things I could have done about the inheritance nightmare during the time I wasted on this post. But I wasn’t going to do them!
p.s.: Average wage was unchanged as expected, and unemployment was a little worse than expected, but 75% more jobs were added than had been expected. This was irrelevant compared to the debt ceiling.
